Presidential election 2012

• 28 September 2010 at 22:26
• Tombé pour la France, Politik Pop

The French can't wait for 2012! After three years of Sarkozy, they can't take it anymore. But nobody knows who to give his seat to.

The prevalent theory until March was that he would get re-elected, but it was before the huge defeat his party suffered at the regional elections. Since then, the Left thinks it's got its chances and the Right doubts. The recent Woerth-Bettencourt scandal and then the security measures announced last July (the President decided to oust the Roma and take away the citizenship of French people "of foreign origin" who would try to kill a cop) just made things worse. Yet, it is still very possible that he wins.

And if he doesn't win, someone else from the Right could. Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin presents himself as "the anti-Sarkozy", even if it means ignoring his own record regarding Roma. He's the one who made the speech of France's opposition to the Iraq war in 2003. If Sarkozy didn't run this time or fell at the first round of the election, Villepin could easily win against the Left as leader of the humanist Right, as Chirac did in 1995 with what he then called the "social breaking". Fillon as well could be a candidate.

It will be a very difficult one for the Left, who is in bad shape, despite the crisis of neoliberalism.

The legitimacy of the Socialist Party, who is strongly competed by the Greens, inside the Left is getting weaker, even though the regional elections seem to have stopped the votes hemorrhage. Nevertheless, the Greens are about to play a bet by choosing Eva Joly as their candidate. A bet because she's still quite unfamous, she's little of a speaker but she's got a very good CV: she's been an iron independent judge, she fought very hard against corruption and particularly Elf, everybody knows she's a honest and determined person. And after all of the scandals suffered by the main political parties, people will like that a lot. However, I don't think she'll get elected. I think she's absolutely great and I would be proud to have her for President but her political positions are unknown, she's got little experience in politics and then, after seeing her against right-wing commentator Eric Zemmour, I thought she wasn't capable of defending her convictions properly, and this can be very, very bad in a presidential debate.

Besides, the state of the economy is still very unstable, and a new crisis, with a tough plan de rigueur (economic drastic plan), would give wings to the radical Left. After the bank bailout, people started wondering about the economic system. It looks like they already forgot though, but if the crisis came again, despite the efforts we would have had to make, the economic situation would be a disaster, and radical Left Mélenchon could make it make to the second round of the Presidential election, because nobody would like a greek-style story: when socialist Prime Minister Papandreou, also President of the Socialist International, got elected, he realised the previous government hid the real accountacy and had to reveal the true state of greek finances and he got forced by his greedy European mates, as well as the IMF, to execute the most antisocial agenda ever applied in history!

Much will depend on the Socialist Party, its candidate and its program. Right now, it looks like it will either be current IMF director (!) Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Martine Aubry. DSK is given a winner in every poll, despite being at the head of the IMF, proving, to me, that the French don't really want the Left. DSK would also have a major asset: his part at the IMF give him international credibility and the French will be sure, or at least believe, that with him would come back the markets trust. Regarding Martine Aubry, it's quite unclear. She seems a risky choice for the Socialists as the Right has always accused her of damaging the French economy with her 35-hour week law. But indeed, if their rights are too much attacked under Sarkozy, the French may want someone who is attached to social rights. But even more important, is the strategy that the socialist candidate will commit to in the case of another economic meltdown. Greek-style plan or revolutionary plan? Will this question even be mentioned?

The biggest fear actually for 2012 is not the reelection of Sarkozy, it's that the real questions may get avoided: the economic crisis and the political crisis.

Far-right National Front also is going to play an important part, with Marine Le Pen who seems softer than father and current leader Jean-Marie Le Pen who shocked France by making it to the second round of the Presidential election in 2002. She might make a big score and reedit her father's 2002 success. In that case, it is very likely that she will make a better score on the second round than her father who had to compete with Chirac for the Presidency, whoever she will stand against, given the current gloomy political landscape. If Sarkozy faces her, the Left will have a hard time to vote for him. Likewise, if the Left faces her, quite a few right-wing voters might consider voting for her. We may then have to face a political crash.

2012 is going to be a very important year. Many important elections will happen, particularly in the USA, and France will probably have to make tough decisions, but once again, the real questions might not get discussed at all.

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